Severe Conservation

Conservation till it hurts - a lot

get help about (1) extent of domestic consumption reduction in WWII -
here and in Europe

(2) effects of reduction

(3) anecdotes

1. reduction of housing  stock 2. dormitories 3.  travel restrictions
4. drastic shrinkage of resort industries

The dominant view of conservation in America is romantic.

For what do we use all that energy

Temporary and long-term measures

The plan will mobilize people's co-operation provided it is a plan to
recover our standard  of living and not  just to endure.   There will
probably have  to be  new people in  charge who  are not  tarred with
having said that little can be done to increase production.

Mobilization  may close  down automobile  production and  colleges in
order to get production capability and manpower for  producing energy
production facilities.

At the  present time, public  co-operation with requests  to conserve
electricity may  not be in  the public interest.   Cohen wants  me to
treat replacing  travel by communication  Nothing should be  done for
symbolic reasons.

        This paper is qualitative treatment of problems  that require
a quantitative treatment.  I  will discuss levels of  energy shortage
and severe conservation measures,  but I lack the information  to say
what measures will  be necessitated by  what levels of  shortage.  It
seemed more important to be qualitatively comprehensive than  to give
a  quantitative treatment  based  on limited  ideas of  the  kinds of
shortage and methods for dealing with them.

Brooks   -   May   19           require   thermostats   set   at   45
compulsory van  pooling for all  organizations employing more  than X
(stockpile vans)         WW2  style rationing (which was  dictated by
a  shortage  of  rubber   not  gasoline)  wouldn't  work.   -  Brooks
300 to 500 megawatt plants         there were political  judgments in



the  CONAES  report,  especially  lower  than  possible  nuclear (sub
business  as  usual).   This  is  partly  explicit  in   the  report.
there   is  some   mention  of   a  high   electrification  scenario.
shale   was  downgraded   because  its   environmental   effects  are
concentrated         coal stoves, carcinogens from  wood         heat
rationing.

Notes  prepared for  talk with  Brooks  Dynanamics  of the  spread of
pessimism, eco-errors

Alliances with  anti-capitalism Claims on  power institutionalization
inhomogeneity in  U.S. and world  lack of  substantial pro-technology
rival  by  holding  closed  conference  SE2  is  failing  to mobilize
analyzing institution of opposition opens one to charge of  making ad
hominem attacks

For what do we use all thaat energy

In  order  to  mobilize, we  will  have  to  overcome anti-technology
political  obstacles,  e.g.  beat  the  anti-nuclear   movement.   To
overcome the obstacles, we  must understand hem.  We  must especially
understand anti-technology as a political force.  1. romantic view of
conservation and its role in current energy ideology

2.  history as  an indication  of what  severe conservation  would be
like.

3. the local character of shortages

4. severe conservation measures

5. very severe conservation measures

6. suspending the price mechanism - it's immediate benefits  and long
range costs a  slide of distortions          ration based on  cars or
drivers licenses         keeping a car that would otherwise be junked
getting a license to get the ration

7.  Political  adoptability  and  acceptability  of  various measures
depends on how Administration and Congress lead.

Non market rationing will last how long.

What kind of advance plan shold there be, since the  present troubles
are mainly  political?  A  presently prepared  plan will  concede too
much to  shibboleths that  will have  to be  abandoned in  the actual
crisis.  It would be best if an administrative agency were to prepare
a range of plans with energy vs. ecology a parameter.



Ideology and energy

        compromising on facts and not merely on policy

See also EXTREM[s80,jmc]

The President must attack those extreme environmentalists

subtopics

The assumed crisis

Areas of shortage

        Heating

        Transportation

Technical fixes

        Communication for travel and commuting

Rationing, allocations and prices

Political issues

Research methodology

Needed statistics

        Historical and other countries' domestic energy consumption.

        Inhomogeneities within the country.